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Fooled By Randomness The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets

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Description

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's

landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty,

probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't

understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan,

Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by

Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you

think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb-veteran

trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and

New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan-has written a

modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and

skill. This book is about luck-or more precisely, about how we perceive

and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of

the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill-the world

of trading-Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one

of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an

entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual

issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance

on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some

of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the

baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper;

the ancient world's wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George

Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero,

who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life

but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the

most recognizable character of all remains unnamed-the lucky fool who

happens to be in the right place at the right time-he embodies the

"survival of the least fit." Such individuals attract devoted followers

who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can

replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing

the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try

to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible

to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but

after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial

Times Best Business Book of the Year

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